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Bingoloid

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Everything posted by Bingoloid

  1. Purely out of curiosity, why, specifically, do you consider her unfit? I can understand the argument that both parties should put off these nominations when elections are near out of decency, but I'd like to hear why she's a poor nominee.
  2. She's so stressed out and desperate in this clip it's unbelievable.
  3. Bingoloid

    Brindisi leads Tenney by 9% in poll

    Also, if she loses her tail in an accident, it grows back, a trait she shares with only a few other reptiles and amphibians, such as salamanders.
  4. Bingoloid

    BCVoice Poll: Akshar, Quiter or Write-in?

    In seriousness, though, I'll toss Quiter a vote. No local Republican or Democrat will ever sit in Albany and tell us the truth when our local politicians fail to take advantage of the opportunities available to us, too many people who went to high school together covering each others' tracks. Akshar's priority has seemingly been drinking up the party's money with his new Albany friends. I've always had issues with the big-L libertarians, in part because of their tolerance of ancaps (and watching them rage at Korchak in the perennial Libertarian game of "Let's Accuse Our Candidates Of Not Being 'Real Libertarians'" was just lame), but I'm willing to give someone who is still interested in limited government and market solutions but also independent of both machines a chance, even if his platform isn't completely developed. I have heard nothing at all about this Dupre person, but if he's a Democratic candidate and couldn't be bothered to petition, that sounds pretty sketchy.
  5. Bingoloid

    BCVoice Poll: Akshar, Quiter or Write-in?

    I don't know why anybody would waste their vote on an obscure third-party candidate with no natural constituency like Dupre.
  6. Neighbor tipped me off that Petcosky & Sons residential plumbing business has been sold to Auchinachie, but the old phone number still picks up as Petcosky & Sons at first. The reviews over the last few months from people who got roped into giving Auchinachie a chance are about what you'd expect. Also worth noting that ANC appears to be running a bogus Google ad trying to poach customers looking for Petcosky & Sons' phone number. Hiring the wrong plumber can be a really terrible mistake.
  7. Sorry, yeah, I see what you're saying. I think they struck the deal in 2019 but waited to announce it to the press until all the paperwork and legal loose ends were tied up. If you look at Dubin-Clark's press releases, they're on a spree buying up plumbing and heating companies. They also announced one in King of Prussia, PA (Sila) and another in Goshen, NY last month. Sila is huge and does business all the way from Boston to Washington. Considering they announced they're renaming Astar to Sila, wouldn't be surprised if they drop the Auchinachie pretense eventually and start advertising as Sila here once people get used to the new combined business. Getting them all under one brand will shave a little more money off the marketing costs.
  8. The article is five months old. I saw it when I checked into this but didn't think it's worth mentioning, but yes, Auchinachie is now a subsidiary of Astar plumbing in Middletown, which is owned by an equity firm out of Boston. Then they bought out Petcosky's residential business because Petcosky wanted out of that, and are operating it all as one business, using the Auchinachie brand name here. ...and, for the same reason as every other business in America: to make more money. If you're buying twice as many water heaters and whatever else in the same region, you can negotiate a bigger discount with your supplier, get cheaper lines of credit, etc. Most likely the owners wanted out in a hurry and there was an opportunity to acquire it at a good price. Sometimes this also happens when the original owners still want to run the business, but need more cash to grow, so they'll sell some percentage to an equity firm that will want to see their investment succeed instead of borrowing at interest from a bank that doesn't care if they live or die as long as the bank gets paid back. Boston is a major hub in the equity industry. There are several press releases from the firms that were involved in the negotiations going back to 2019: https://dubinclark.com/astar-auchinachie/ https://www.abladvisor.com/news/17464/lbc-small-cap-supports-the-acquisition-of-auchinachie https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/fmi-advises-petcosky--sons-plumbing-heating--ac-inc-in-acquisition-to-astar-heating--air-a-dubin-clark-portfolio-company-301041386.html
  9. Bingoloid

    Donald and Melania Trump have tested positive for COVID-19

    Have any of them read it? It's not vague. Pence must initiate the process, in cooperation with a majority of Trump's Cabinet, or else nothing happens. If the President is lucid enough to disagree, both houses of Congress must agree by supermajority that the President is unfit, or else nothing happens. He can bite the head off a live bat in the Rose Garden and there's still nothing for Pelosi to investigate. This is purely for show.
  10. Enjoying the attempts by the local media shills to minimize being transported in an ambulance and hospitalized overnight. https://wbng.com/2020/10/09/binghamton-mayor-temporarily-visited-hospital-is-feeling-good/ Dear Leader "temporarily visits hospital". Of course it was temporary. Nobody visits a hospital permanently. This headline would be equally true if he died. "Whoops. Visit's over."
  11. Why do they always use the pictures of Rich that make him look like the idiot son in a mafia movie who can't be trusted to inherit the crime empire? "No, don't send Rich to the meeting. He's not ready. He's too... Well, you know about it." "Boss, your tumors. I mean, he's your oldest. He'll be taking over the whole Chicago crew soon. Won't he?" "Rich should focus on the strip club right now. That's always been where his heart's at anyway. Let Tony handle the meeting instead, they'll need to get used to dealing with him. It's the way things are going to have to go now." "My God, boss. If Rich realizes he's getting pushed out, he'll..." "Rich never realizes anything."
  12. https://cnycentral.com/news/local/skaneateles-hotel-workers-offer-perspective-on-binghamton-mayors-covid-19-case Staff at the Sherwood Inn say he was taken in an ambulance and they had to complete an incident report.
  13. Bingoloid

    Brindisi leads Tenney by 9% in poll

    Lizards naturally slow down when the temperatures drop. Her staff needs to start scheduling in time to allow her to bask under a heat lamp in the mornings.
  14. Yeah, seems unlikely they kept him overnight two hours away from home because he merely "did not feel well". "I feel bad" isn't an indicator for hospitalization. Likely he blacked out somewhere when his oxygen levels tanked. I had a colleague who had the same thing happen at home alone before she realized she was sick.
  15. Bingoloid

    George Phillips

    Most late-stage national polls predicted the actual result (Clinton +2.1) to within 3%. You can sort by date here: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/national-polls/ Where they went off the rails were in several individual union-heavy blue states that ended up going to Trump by less than 1%. I suspect this has a lot to do with what Thurston Morton said in the other thread, people who weren't telling pollsters the truth about their intentions. NY-22 doesn't get polled heavily but Siena College held up OK in 2018: https://scri.siena.edu/2018/08/29/incumbent-tenney-challenger-brindisi-locked-in-a-near-dead-heat/
  16. Bingoloid

    Harris v Pence

    Harris was nervous and underprepared for the first half. Pence ran long trying to run out the clock but overall gave a stronger performance. Harris woke up later in the debate and laid two good traps, but Pence did not fall into either one. If this were a Harris-Pence election instead, I think the Republicans would be doing much better nationwide. Pence was mostly stuck defending the rear of Trump's baggage train, which is a tough spot to be in right now and I don't blame him for trying to avoid engagement where he did, and he did a good job of putting Harris on the defensive about Biden. Harris needs to lose the grandma earrings, it's not a good look, but Pence looked like Race Bannon just got discharged from the hospital after a long battle with COVID-19, and that didn't help him either. A blown blood vessel in one eye that he kept trying to hide by shifting his eyes away from the camera, major green bags under his eyes buried in a thick layer of makeup, and a bug desperately trying to eat whatever his team put on his hair. Either he hasn't been sleeping or he's fighting off an illness. Overall, I didn't think either seemed like great debaters, but Pence had a strategy and came out on top.
  17. Bingoloid

    Corona Virus

    This article is goofy bullshit. If you're in insurance, you know how death certificates work. If someone gets shot in the chest, Part I will list (for example) exsanguination as the immediate cause of death (line 1), "due to" chest trauma (line 2) "due to" GSW (line 3). The final underlying cause goes on the lowest line. If you have a complicating condition that made it harder for you to survive these events but it was not part of the chain, it goes in Part II. Neither the immediate cause of death being exsanguination nor whatever is in Part II mean that you did not die from a gunshot wound, yet no death certificate should list GSW alone. Likewise, nobody dies simply as a result of having an infection. They die of other causes due to the underlying infection, all of which go in Part I with the infection on the lowest line, and anything that made it difficult to fight the infection or to survive the resulting events in Part II. CDC even issued a multi-page bulletin reminding examiners how to prepare the document correctly and not to screw this up. All this footnote says is that 6% of the death certificates were prepared by lazy people. As Table 3 makes clear, the others filled out the rest of the chain (most commonly in this table: pneumonia, ARDS, and respiratory failure) and the relevant complications (most commonly in this table: hypertension, heart disease, and diabetes), as you're supposed to do. I'd be more suspicious that the 6% are the ones who didn't die of COVID-19 because the preparer obviously didn't bother to research the death. 39% of Americans are obese. 45% have hypertension. 10% are diabetic, rising to over 25% in old age. We already know it's unusual for people to die of COVID-19 without additional risk factors, but they're extremely common.
  18. I read this morning that the mayor of Ithaca is also isolating because he was in close contact with David at that conference.
  19. Bingoloid

    Brindisi leads Tenney by 9% in poll

    I would suggest, though, that there are also many will not vote for Tenney because they are suspicious that she may be a lizard person in a human suit.
  20. Bingoloid

    George Phillips

    Polls are generally gathered to provide a 95% confidence interval. What this means is that if you re-sampled this same number of people 20 times, you would expect, on average, only one of the result sets to be outside the margin of error. The margin of error is 5%. They found 9%. These results might move in the coming weeks and there can be bias in who gets sampled and who doesn't (for example, back in the day, they used to only call landlines, which naturally biased toward the kind of people who still had landlines and actually answered them, and some "likely voters" never show up), so there are lots of ways this could be wrong, but this sample size and margin of error aren't it. A way to look at this is that it suggests that the chance that Tenney is losing by between 4 and 14 points is 95%, and that the chances she's winning are far less than 5%.
  21. Bingoloid

    Abels Pub- 30 Covid cases?

    Purely out of curiosity, are we talking about a middle-aged individual who also does shifts at a certain other West Side establishment? I'm not naming names here because they did nothing wrong, but I know one employee at this establishment I'm thinking of had it and had a very hard fight with it, it'd make sense if that person gave it to this bartender.
  22. Bingoloid

    Donald and Melania Trump have tested positive for COVID-19

    I'm enjoying the takes along the lines of "flying all those people in to socialize without a mask wasn't irresponsible, because we have to achieve herd immunity - just focus on protecting the vulnerable until then". OK, but who do these people think the vulnerable are? Trump, bless his heart, is a mildly obese 74-year-old who refuses to exercise because somebody convinced him moving makes you die faster. Giuliani, Sanders, McConnell, Biden, Romney, Pelosi, Barr, all over 70, some with confirmed health problems. These are the people who they're saying should have been taking extra precautions.
  23. Bingoloid

    Donald and Melania Trump have tested positive for COVID-19

    Right, but I don't think anyone has stated publicly if she was sick or not.
  24. Bingoloid

    Donald and Melania Trump have tested positive for COVID-19

    Definitely true, in a hypothetical outdoor event where a bunch of near-strangers are maintaining a normal distance. This was a major networking event. People systematically shaking hands, hugging, and cheek-kissing every single person who will give them the time of day, then sitting close together without masks for a prolonged period. Politico even put together a seating chart. Three of the people who have tested positive from the event were sitting right behind Pence, Barr, Conway, etc. What a mess. EDIT: ...aaaaand Conway has tested positive.
  25. Bingoloid

    Donald and Melania Trump have tested positive for COVID-19

    There are now a number of positive tests from prominent individuals who were present at the Barrett announcement in the Rose Garden, six days ago. I'd wager that this was the super-spreader event. Barrett herself tested positive this summer and may be immune.
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