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BCVoice Poll: Biden or Trump?


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BCVoice Poll: Biden or Trump?  

83 members have voted

  1. 1. For President: Biden or Trump?

    • Biden
      36
    • Trump
      47


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1 minute ago, DanCooper said:

Rasmussen has Biden up today.

Rasmussen said yesterday that they will be releasing daily updates until Election Day. There other polls for national leads were monthly until yesterday.

Still, that's a national lead, look at some of their state polls. The presidential election doesn't matter on national results, it's the state ones that matter. Remember, the last 2 Republican Presidents were elected while losing the popular vote.

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1 minute ago, binghamtonian said:

Rasmussen said yesterday that they will be releasing daily updates until Election Day. There other polls for national leads were monthly until yesterday.

Still, that's a national lead, look at some of their state polls. The presidential election doesn't matter on national results, it's the state ones that matter. Remember, the last 2 Republican Presidents were elected while losing the popular vote.

Trending much like 2016.

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A naive projection based on what I was able to quickly scrape out of the available data, without doing a lot of digging about absentees, etc.

- I don't see any major pool of outstanding votes in Wisconsin. Supposedly, they're still counting absentees, which likely lean Democratic, so I'd expect Biden to keep the state.

- Trump is leading in Michigan by 30,000, but if the ratio in Wayne County (Detroit) holds, it will deliver at least another net 100,000 for Biden.

- Trump will likely hold Pennsylvania. There are many red-leaning counties that aren't fully reported and his lead is substantial, it will be difficult for Philadelphia to overcome that.

- Much like Wisconsin, North Carolina seems like it's mostly reported, I'd expect Trump to keep it.

- Alaska, Nevada, and Maine's split EC shouldn't surprise anyone.

This gets us to 259/252 Biden. In this scenario, Trump would need both Georgia and Arizona. I tend to think he's losing Arizona, which would give Biden exactly 270. It will be close.

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1 hour ago, Bingoloid said:

A naive projection based on what I was able to quickly scrape out of the available data, without doing a lot of digging about absentees, etc.

- I don't see any major pool of outstanding votes in Wisconsin. Supposedly, they're still counting absentees, which likely lean Democratic, so I'd expect Biden to keep the state.

- Trump is leading in Michigan by 30,000, but if the ratio in Wayne County (Detroit) holds, it will deliver at least another net 100,000 for Biden.

- Trump will likely hold Pennsylvania. There are many red-leaning counties that aren't fully reported and his lead is substantial, it will be difficult for Philadelphia to overcome that.

- Much like Wisconsin, North Carolina seems like it's mostly reported, I'd expect Trump to keep it.

- Alaska, Nevada, and Maine's split EC shouldn't surprise anyone.

This gets us to 259/252 Biden. In this scenario, Trump would need both Georgia and Arizona. I tend to think he's losing Arizona, which would give Biden exactly 270. It will be close.

I’ve been tinkering myself. This and $1 will buy you a cup of coffee:

Give Biden Arizona and Maine and that gives him 238. Trump wins Alaska, Georgia, North Carolina and PA. That gives him 267.

Trump - 267

Biden - 238

That leaves Michigan (16), Wisconsin (10) and Nevada (6). Trump just has to win just one of these to give him 270. Biden has to win all three. Trump has the Supreme Court. Trump Wins! 
 

Gonna be a shit show of epic proportions. 

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I was up at 5 am, went back to bed when I saw FOX was still playing numbers games. I think Trump owns all of the remaining states and they know it, they just don't want to admit it's a landslide.

 

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