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BCVoice Poll: Brindisi or Tenney?

BCVoice Poll: Brindisi or Tenney?  

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  1. 1. BCVoice Poll: Brindisi or Tenney?

    • Brindisi
      44
    • Tenney
      38


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On 11/6/2020 at 7:19 AM, BC is History said:

11/9: Still time for Dems to find 31,000 ballots somewhere.

11/10: Still time for Dems to find 29,000 ballots somewhere.

Exactly. At what point does an nondescript black van drop off a tub of ballots at 3AM?

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6 hours ago, Hank Mitchell said:

According to Real Clear Politics, this race has now been called for Tenney.

Screenshot_20201112-101719_Chrome.jpg

Calling it for Tenney may be a little premature.  Wait until the counting is done on Monday.

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2 hours ago, PeteMoss said:

It looks bad for Tenney.

What's the latest info? Syracuse.com said Brindisi got about 75% of the 14,600 ballots thus far as of Thursday.

Based on their reported numbers, he needed like 77% of the ~52,500 submitted absentee ballots heading into the count and now would need about 78% of the remaining 37,900 based on the 75% of 14,600.

Broome has always been Brindisi stronghold and he got 80.6% of the 4,116 absentee as of Thursday. He got 72.9% over the rest of the district with no results from Herkimer, Chenango, or Oneida reported as of yet.

Appears that this race will end up even closer than 2018.

https://www.syracuse.com/politics/2020/11/rep-anthony-brindisi-gains-ground-on-claudia-tenney-in-absentee-ballot-count.html

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6 hours ago, Kaz said:

What's the latest word on the absentee ballot count?

Looks like Brindisi now has the better odds of winning. What was originally said to be about 52,600 absentee ballots at the beginning has now grown to 58,600 and it keeps going higher. The more absentee ballots the fewer % he has to win to overcome the election day deficit. His pace of 76% is now above the threshold needed to win. That said, broome county was his best county by far and is pretty much now done so he will have to make up the remaining deficit from elsewhere in the district... mostly Oneida and Chenango counties it seems.

https://www.syracuse.com/politics/2020/11/claudia-tenneys-election-lead-over-rep-anthony-brindisi-plummets-to-7189-votes.html

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"What was originally said to be about 52,600 absentee ballots at the beginning has now grown to 58,600 and it keeps going higher."

Why does it keep going higher?

I just find it odd that such a % of these here and elsewhere are Dems. America needs voting transparency.

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5 hours ago, thomas said:

"What was originally said to be about 52,600 absentee ballots at the beginning has now grown to 58,600 and it keeps going higher."

Why does it keep going higher?

I just find it odd that such a % of these here and elsewhere are Dems. America needs voting transparency.

I agree. Based on the contents of these articles, some counties have been much more transparent and forthcoming of their totals than others. 

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I practically drove by the voting place near me almost every day during 'early' voting - there was NEVER a day where the line was not out to the parking lot - and sometimes 1/2 block up the street. The night I went, even at 8PM we were still across the parking lot and out to the street. Never saw turnout like that EVER. Tenney had a very strong lead when 'in-person' votes were counted. Now I'm seeing that Brindisi is within 2k votes of winning? 58K absentee ballots??? There are only 125k registered voters in BC...so 48% of the people voted by mail? Seriously? That's not what my eyes were telling me for the 10 days of early voting. Something is very, very wrong here people. Very wrong.

If it walks like a duck, quacks like a duck, and looks like a duck.....

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2 hours ago, Kaz said:

I practically drove by the voting place near me almost every day during 'early' voting - there was NEVER a day where the line was not out to the parking lot - and sometimes 1/2 block up the street. The night I went, even at 8PM we were still across the parking lot and out to the street. Never saw turnout like that EVER. Tenney had a very strong lead when 'in-person' votes were counted. Now I'm seeing that Brindisi is within 2k votes of winning? 58K absentee ballots??? There are only 125k registered voters in BC...so 48% of the people voted by mail? Seriously? That's not what my eyes were telling me for the 10 days of early voting. Something is very, very wrong here people. Very wrong.

If it walks like a duck, quacks like a duck, and looks like a duck.....

The 59,300 absentees were the total among all 8 counties in the district. Broome's share was about 20,000.

The margin is now 3,600 as of 6pm. His to-date pace with the absentees would give him about a 1,000-1,500 vote lead when those are done being counted assuming the total amount of absentees doesnt continue to also increase. There is a small number of affidavit and provisional ballots that were cast on election day that still need to be counted in most of the 8 counties it seems, but even if those follow election day voting patterns, doesnt seem like it would be enough to offset the gains he is getting with the absentee ballots.

https://www.syracuse.com/politics/2020/11/rep-anthony-brindisi-cuts-claudia-tenneys-lead-to-5183-votes-in-race-for-congress.html

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1 hour ago, Hank Mitchell said:

The 59,300 absentees were the total among all 8 counties in the district. Broome's share was about 20,000.

The margin is now 3,600 as of 6pm. His to-date pace with the absentees would give him a lead of about 1,000-1,500 vote lead when those are done being counted assuming the total amount of absentees doesnt continue to also increase. There is a small number of affidavit and provisional ballots that were cast on election day that still need to be counted in most of the 8 counties it seems, but even if those follow election day voting patterns, doesnt seem like it would be enough to offset the gains he is getting with the absentee ballots.

https://www.syracuse.com/politics/2020/11/rep-anthony-brindisi-cuts-claudia-tenneys-lead-to-5183-votes-in-race-for-congress.html

And if it's not enough, they'll find more.  The fix is in.

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in looking at the accomplishments of each, Tenney sponsored 22 bills/amendments and Brindisi sponsored 28 - two of Brindisi's actually made it through the process and were signed into law - isn't that what our representatives should be measured on?  results came from www.Congress.Gov which i would hope is factual.

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43 minutes ago, Nyrfan said:

in looking at the accomplishments of each, Tenney sponsored 22 bills/amendments and Brindisi sponsored 28 - two of Brindisi's actually made it through the process and were signed into law - isn't that what our representatives should be measured on?  results came from www.Congress.Gov which i would hope is factual.

It depends on what was in the bills/amendments.  A lot of Brindisi was just fluff.

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Seems that a little more than half of the remaining 9,000 absentee to be counted are going to come out of Chenango County which should help slow the bleed a bit for Tenney but still not looking good.

He running at a 72% clip overall and needs 70% of the remaining 9,000...

https://www.syracuse.com/politics/2020/11/rep-anthony-brindisi-claudia-tenney-separated-by-3500-votes-in-house-race.html

 

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12 hours ago, Nyrfan said:

in looking at the accomplishments of each, Tenney sponsored 22 bills/amendments and Brindisi sponsored 28 - two of Brindisi's actually made it through the process and were signed into law - isn't that what our representatives should be measured on?  results came from www.Congress.Gov which i would hope is factual.

Don't forget, the "spoons bill" that Tony took credit for, even made an ad about it, was originally a Tenney bill.

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12 hours ago, Common Sense said:

Brindisi voted to impeach Donald Trump. That's reason enough for me to have voted against him. If he "wins" this, it will be because he's riding the Cheatin' Biden coattails.

Agree, dishonest, Refuses to call a spade a spade

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30 minutes ago, PeteMoss said:

Don't forget, the "spoons bill" that Tony took credit for, even made an ad about it, was originally a Tenney bill.

Again outrageously dishonest and a thief. I'll bet he didn't even bother to purchase even one place setting for his own family.

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32 minutes ago, PeteMoss said:

Don't forget, the "spoons bill" that Tony took credit for, even made an ad about it, was originally a Tenney bill.

True - i did notice that

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3500 of the remaining 4000 ballots out of Oneida county were counted today and Brindisi got 67% of the votes, which was a few points off the needed pace to win and may have tipped the odds to slightly in Tenney's favor with about 5500 ballots left to count.

In comparing 2018 to the current 2020 results, Tenney has overperformed and Brindisi has underperformed in Cortland, Herkimer, Madison, Oneida, and Oswego. The opposite is true for Tioga. In Broome, Brindisi matched his 2018 vote share while Tenney underperformed.

Not sure which way Chenango will tilt, but for Brindisi to win, he needs 69% of the remaining vote, which for that to happen, would require him to match his 2018 vote share in Chenango of 44.5%. Herkimer and Tioga had very similar vote splits to Chenango in 2018, but those 2 counties went opposite directions in 2020.

Either way, it looks like whoever wins this race will now do so by 500 or less votes, or .16% or less.  Of course this all is dependent upon an estimated outstanding ballot count that doesnt continue to increase like it has in the previous days and also that the current count by Syracuse.com is accurate.

Screenshot_20201118-222709_Excel.jpg.d76107cd7942e7cc99d648ef63620169.jpg

Screenshot_20201118-222826_Excel.jpg.8fe928a9b8e6073718cb3ac9fcd64658.jpg

https://www.syracuse.com/politics/2020/11/claudia-tenneys-lead-over-rep-anthony-brindisi-shrinks-to-2153-votes.html

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8 minutes ago, thomas said:

...And when is it expected to end?

Election day was 11/3, tomorrow will be 16 days...and we still don't know who won? We need to upgrade from 'high tech' to abacus.

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