Hank Mitchell Posted November 19, 2020 Report Share Posted November 19, 2020 3 hours ago, thomas said: Excellent analysis. When does that counting start? And when is it expected to end? According to the article, Chenango starts on Thursday so would imagine all or most of the count is done before the end of Friday. If they count and release a majority of the vote by the end of Thursday there might be enough to make a reasonable conclusion on the outcome. Given the likelihood of this race being decided by 500 or less votes and less than .2%, would imagine there might be a recount ordered but dont know how that works in NYS. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PeteMoss Posted November 19, 2020 Report Share Posted November 19, 2020 Before the vote, a wise man told me that this will be a 500 vote election. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hank Mitchell Posted November 19, 2020 Report Share Posted November 19, 2020 Tenney remains in the lead by 300 votes with all non-contested absentee ballots apparently counted. Brindisi got 66% of the 5000 from Chenango county, 3 points shy of the necessary threshold to take the lead. Just a small number of election day affadavit ballots left to count and then a judge will decide the fate of the race based on several hundred contested ballots that were set aside... https://www.syracuse.com/politics/2020/11/rep-anthony-brindisi-closes-to-within-300-votes-of-claudia-tenney-in-undecided-house-race.html Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hank Mitchell Posted November 19, 2020 Report Share Posted November 19, 2020 WBNG says its 131 vote margin... https://wbng.com/2020/11/19/tenney-with-razor-thin-lead-over-brindisi-in-ny-22-congressional-district-race/ WSYR says its 264 vote margin... https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.localsyr.com/news/your-local-election-hq/new-yorks-22nd-congressional-district-race-between-anthony-brindisi-and-claudia-tenney-separated-by-a-few-hundred-votes/amp/ Observer-Dispatch in Utica says its 285 vote margin... https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.uticaod.com/amp/3778001001 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hank Mitchell Posted November 20, 2020 Report Share Posted November 20, 2020 WKTV in Utica says its 351... https://www.google.com/amp/www.wktv.com/templates/AMP%3fcontentID=573134171 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thomas Posted November 20, 2020 Report Share Posted November 20, 2020 WICZ says "a little over 300" (I did the math with their numbers - 317) http://www.wicz.com/story/42939515/update-brindisi-catching-up-to-tenney-in-absentee-ballot-counting-for-22nd-congressional-district-race WIVT has 339 https://www.binghamtonhomepage.com/news/tenney-lead-down-to-339-votes-over-brindisi-in-22nd-congressional-district-race/ pressconnects has it at 285 "according to data received from county Board of Elections." Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaz Posted November 20, 2020 Report Share Posted November 20, 2020 ....until some election official just happens to notice 300 ballots stuck to the bottom of his shoe....all for Brandisi. Funny how that happens. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thomas Posted November 20, 2020 Report Share Posted November 20, 2020 1 hour ago, Irishrght said: So did we break the algorithm here in NY as well? Statistical voting anomalies, while not proof of fraud, point at areas highly suspect that deserve greater attention to ensure the votes there are indeed valid. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hank Mitchell Posted November 20, 2020 Report Share Posted November 20, 2020 State Supreme Court says the 8 counties have to present final counts by 9am Monday. Both campaigns seem to think the margin will probably be around 100 votes when the final counts are presented Monday. https://www.syracuse.com/politics/2020/11/judge-counties-must-report-final-vote-totals-monday-in-brindisi-tenney-house-race.html Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bingoloid Posted November 20, 2020 Report Share Posted November 20, 2020 I'd like to congratulate Claudia on doing so well in this race despite the electorate having a chance to meet her. Perhaps our first female Reptilian-American representative has earned her second chance. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nyrfan Posted November 20, 2020 Report Share Posted November 20, 2020 anyone know how often has she come to this end of the district? not just in the campaign but when she was in office before Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hank Mitchell Posted November 20, 2020 Report Share Posted November 20, 2020 If Brindisi indeed loses and by this close a margin, I think its suffice to say his impeachment vote probably cost him his seat. President Trump was clearly still popular in this district, winning every county with the exception of Broome and most of them by solid margins based on current results. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Common Sense Posted November 20, 2020 Report Share Posted November 20, 2020 Pelosi's long time chief of staff is CEO of Dominion, that's been getting a little bit of press recently for its fine work providing water-tight voting machines. Brindisi voted with Pelosi more than 90% of the time, including on the phony impeachment that no real Americans in his district supported. If he's competing at ALL in this race it's because of voter fraud. He deserves to lose. And Tenney should use her second chance to do as much as she can for her district. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Common Sense Posted November 21, 2020 Report Share Posted November 21, 2020 On 11/18/2020 at 10:30 PM, Hank Mitchell said: 3500 of the remaining 4000 ballots out of Oneida county were counted today and Brindisi got 67% of the votes, which was a few points off the needed pace to win and may have tipped the odds to slightly in Tenney's favor with about 5500 ballots left to count. In comparing 2018 to the current 2020 results, Tenney has overperformed and Brindisi has underperformed in Cortland, Herkimer, Madison, Oneida, and Oswego. The opposite is true for Tioga. In Broome, Brindisi matched his 2018 vote share while Tenney underperformed. Not sure which way Chenango will tilt, but for Brindisi to win, he needs 69% of the remaining vote, which for that to happen, would require him to match his 2018 vote share in Chenango of 44.5%. Herkimer and Tioga had very similar vote splits to Chenango in 2018, but those 2 counties went opposite directions in 2020. Either way, it looks like whoever wins this race will now do so by 500 or less votes, or .16% or less. Of course this all is dependent upon an estimated outstanding ballot count that doesnt continue to increase like it has in the previous days and also that the current count by Syracuse.com is accurate. https://www.syracuse.com/politics/2020/11/claudia-tenneys-lead-over-rep-anthony-brindisi-shrinks-to-2153-votes.html Not too hard to tell who syracuse.com is rooting for. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hank Mitchell Posted November 21, 2020 Report Share Posted November 21, 2020 1 hour ago, Common Sense said: Not too hard to tell who syracuse.com is rooting for. Yeah their editorial board endorsed Brindisi... https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.syracuse.com/opinion/2020/10/editorial-endorsement-reelect-anthony-brindisi-in-the-22nd-congressional-district.html%3foutputType=amp Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Property & Casualty Posted November 21, 2020 Report Share Posted November 21, 2020 Why are we still counting ballots 2+ weeks after Election Day? If states can call elections for President, Senate, HOR, etc., then why are we still counting votes for this race. Smells fishy to me. Is there a good reason why we haven't finished counting? Are "votes" still coming in after the fact? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thomas Posted November 21, 2020 Report Share Posted November 21, 2020 4 hours ago, Common Sense said: Pelosi's long time chief of staff is CEO of Dominion Provide a source for that please. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PeteMoss Posted November 21, 2020 Report Share Posted November 21, 2020 6 hours ago, thomas said: Provide a source for that please. https://about.bgov.com/news/voting-machine-firms-add-lobbyists-amid-election-hacker-concerns/ Not the CEO but very suspicious Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bingoloid Posted November 21, 2020 Report Share Posted November 21, 2020 1 hour ago, PeteMoss said: https://about.bgov.com/news/voting-machine-firms-add-lobbyists-amid-election-hacker-concerns/ Not the CEO but very suspicious https://www.bhfs.com/people/policy/bwild On that same team is Brian Wild, a senior advisor to John Boehner, deputy assistant for legislative affairs to Vice-President Cheney, and former chief of staff to Pat Toomey. I wonder why a company that sells things to government would hire a lobbying firm that knows everybody in government. 🤔 It's a mystery, Scoob. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hank Mitchell Posted November 21, 2020 Report Share Posted November 21, 2020 Some good insight here. Seems the race will be centered on about 745 disputed and currently uncounted affadavit ballots, but cant say for sure because of the lack of transperancy in this whole process. https://www.syracuse.com/politics/2020/11/brindisi-tenney-house-race-shrouded-in-secrecy-confusion-as-campaigns-battle-over-ballots.html Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaz Posted November 21, 2020 Report Share Posted November 21, 2020 8 hours ago, Bingoloid said: ..I wonder why a company that sells things to government would hire a lobbying firm that knows everybody in government. 🤔 It's a mystery, Scoob. No mystery, it's called 'greasing the skids'. I have a friend that lives in the DC area. Back when we had the financial 'crisis' I asked how the recession was impacting them in DC. The reply speaks volumes..."What recession?". Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Common Sense Posted November 22, 2020 Report Share Posted November 22, 2020 I think this may help explain how Brindisi is even competitive in this race:https://conservativetoday.org/sidney-powell-35000-votes-were-added-to-every-democrat-candidate-id-be-willing-to-bet-it-happened-everywhere-video/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Common Sense Posted November 23, 2020 Report Share Posted November 23, 2020 "We have a serious problem on our hands," says the judge overseeing the proceedings on absentee ballots in the Tenney-Brindisi race. This is the Democrats' wet dream: flood the election with mail in ballots by scaring everyone away from in-person voting with the Kung Flu. Then use crafty lawyers to out-weasel the other crafty lawyers in challenging every little smudge on a ballot. People who have a tough time filling in bubbles on ballots or figuring out how to get to a polling place or adhering to absentee ballot rules maybe ought not be involved in our elections. If I was Tenney, there's no WAY I would concede to Brindisi, given what we're finding out about Democrat malfeasance in the elections. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hank Mitchell Posted November 23, 2020 Report Share Posted November 23, 2020 At a minimum... the people in charge of Oneida County elections should be fired immediately for their gross incompetence in the processing of this election. The transparency was already non-existent and they somehow found a way to make it worse. Can't make this up... https://www.syracuse.com/politics/2020/11/absentee-ballots-in-limbo-over-lost-sticky-notes-in-brindisi-tenney-house-race.html Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DanCooper Posted November 24, 2020 Report Share Posted November 24, 2020 Keep counting until the desired result is achieved. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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