Guest Yea I'm a denier Posted March 10, 2008 Report Share Posted March 10, 2008 These damn models cant even see whats going to happen 7 days out and you global warming alarmist expect me and all around to by into their ability to project 5-10-20-100 years into the future, I don't think so. The history of the point and click (nws using their beloved GFS Models aka: Computer models) and result in State College pa on the eastern storm of March 7-8th This was announced before hand and tracked daily to make my point about the point and click idea which arguably was the biggest weather event of the winter ( so far) that the almighty GFS had no idea was coming from 5 days out ( again) The forecast from me at this time was for a major storm that would ride a center up just east of the Appalachians with snow from Texas to northern New York and New England with blizzard conditions over the eastern Ohio valley and lakes and snow all the way into the heart of Texas. That will also be graded. However the purpose was to show the absurdity of buying the US model and the idea that the public is fed this as if it is gospel, or that a good forecaster cant do better. It also illustrates the consistent model error with major storms 4-6 days away in the large population center of the nation,. showing the inherent large scale weaknesses in the modeling in the smaller term, and making the point these that things are not to be trusted 4 hours, 4 days, weeks, months, years or decades away. Garbage in, garbage out.l On Friday, the first day of the forecast,t he day started with a low of 30. Heavy rain arrived for the afternoon and evening, then tapered to drizzle at night, with temps staying in the mid 30s. Saturday had a period of heavy rain in the morning, then a shot of snow later in the day covered the ground. Temps were in the mid 30s and fell into the 20s. The entire area went under a flood warning, for an obvious storm from several days away, where the original probabilities were only 30% In addition, not one mention of rain in the forecast for what was clearly a storm as evidenced by my ideas that would have its problems being all snow ( as it was it was mostly all rain) On Saturday the original NWS point and click had NO MENTION OF PRECIP! Total precip here was 1.56! The Briar score for this, that they would use, would give them a .7 squared error ( actual probability of precip was 100%, which by the way is the probability .01 falls at a give site. there was alot more than .01) so the error was .49, which blunts the severity of such a debacle, since this was a flooding rainstorm and major event. For much of the Ohio valley, this was as bad or worse than the advanced noticed on these point and clicks for the major eastern storm on Valentines day last year. Below is the evolution of all this from 12:15 am Tuesday, where by that time, my column had opined that this storm could cause blizzard conditions at its core, dump heavy rains in the big cities, etc My point is that this forecast data base is a direct affront to competition in the private sector and an example of mission creep under the guise of service. It also turns over the forecast to a model that has proved woeful in major storm situations with the idea that it is such a great model. It is meant to expose this and rip away the layers of deceptions, whether intentional or otherwise on what models are about from as I said 4 hours, 4 days, weeks, months years or decades away. While no man is perfect the reliance on tools man can use rather than the way man uses them amounts to false hope, and is a disservice, not a service. 12:15 am Tuesday Friday: Scattered snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 40. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Friday Night: Scattered snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 23. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Saturday: Partly sunny, with a high near 34. 7 am Tuesday Friday: A chance of rain and snow. Cloudy, with a high near 40. Chance of precipitation is 50%. Friday Night: A chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 23. Chance of precipitation is 40%. Saturday: Partly sunny, with a high near 34. 3pm Tuesday For the record, as of 3 pm, the central PA point and click I am doing the case study on this storm and the lousy GFS performance, and anyone that is simply following the model with it, is: Friday: A chance of rain and snow. Cloudy, with a high near 40. Chance of precipitation is 50%. Friday Night: A chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 23. Chance of precipitation is 40%. Saturday: Partly sunny, with a high near 34. 5 pm Tuesday: Friday: A chance of rain and snow. Cloudy, with a high near 39. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible. Friday Night: A chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 24. Chance of precipitation is 50%. Saturday: Scattered snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 36. Chance of precipitation is 50%. 11:15 pm Tuesday Friday: A chance of rain and snow. Cloudy, with a high near 39. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible. Friday Night: A chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 24. Chance of precipitation is 50%. Saturday: Scattered snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 36. Chance of precipitation is 50 7:15 am Wednesday Friday: Rain and snow likely. Cloudy, with a high near 40. North wind between 5 and 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible. Friday Night: Occasional snow and sleet. Low around 24. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible. Saturday: Snow likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 36. Chance of precipitation is 60%. 3pm Wednesday For the record, as of 3 pm, the central PA point and click I am doing the case study on this storm and the lousy GFS performance, and anyone that is simply following the model with it, is: Friday: A chance of rain and snow. Cloudy, with a high near 40. Chance of precipitation is 50%. Friday Night: A chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 23. Chance of precipitation is 40%. Saturday: Partly sunny, with a high near 34. Wednesday 2pm Friday: Rain and snow likely. Cloudy, with a high near 40. North wind between 5 and 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible. Friday Night: Occasional snow and sleet. Low around 24. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible. Saturday: Snow likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 36. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Wednesday 11pm Friday: Rain and snow likely, mainly after noon. Cloudy, with a high near 43. North wind around 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible. Friday Night: Periods of rain and snow. Low around 29. East wind between 6 and 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible. Saturday: Rain and snow likely, becoming all snow after noon. Cloudy, with a high near 38. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible. Thursday 7 am Friday: Periods of rain possibly mixed with snow, mainly after noon. High near 40. Calm wind becoming east around 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Little or no snow accumulation expected. Friday Night: Periods of snow possibly mixed with rain and sleet, mainly after 2am. Low around 31. East wind around 5 mph becoming calm. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible. (Okay riddle me this, Batman, how is it snow POSSIBLY mixed with sleet and rain, but no accumulation?) Saturday: Occasional rain, snow and sleet, becoming all snow after 1pm. High near 38. North wind 6 to 9 mph increasing to between 14 and 17 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible. **** Thursday 2:30 pm Friday: Periods of rain possibly mixed with snow, mainly after noon. High near 39. Calm wind becoming east around 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Little or no snow accumulation expected. Friday Night: Periods of snow possibly mixed with rain and sleet, mainly after 2 a.m. Low around 30. East wind around 5 mph becoming calm. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible. Saturday: Occasional rain, snow and sleet, becoming all snow after 1 p.m. High near 38. North wind 6 to 9 mph increasing to between 17 and 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible. Thursday 11:30 pm Friday: Periods of rain and snow, mainly after 1pm. High near 39. Calm wind becoming northeast around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Little or no snow accumulation expected. Friday Night: Periods of rain and snow. Low around 31. East wind around 5 mph becoming calm. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Little or no snow accumulation expected. Saturday: Occasional rain and snow. High near 36. North wind 6 to 9 mph increasing to between 14 and 17 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible. Friday 7am Friday: Periods of rain and snow, mainly after 1pm. High near 39. Calm wind becoming northeast around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Little or no snow accumulation expected. Friday Night: Periods of rain and snow. Low around 31. East wind around 5 mph becoming calm. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Little or no snow accumulation expected. Saturday: Occasional rain and snow. High near 36. North wind 6 to 9 mph increasing to between 14 and 17 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible. You be the judge Joe Bastardi accu-weather Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Guest Posted March 10, 2008 Report Share Posted March 10, 2008 Good to see you global warming alarmist have been so gracious with your words of wisdom as to the reasons these models are the know all be all in global warming prediction. As I thought given a example of the cluelessness of your theory's you choose to remain silent until the denier leaves the room. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HollyGolightly Posted March 10, 2008 Report Share Posted March 10, 2008 Carbon Output Must Near Zero To Avert Danger, New Studies Say By Juliet Eilperin Washington Post Staff Writer Monday, March 10, 2008; Page A01 The task of cutting greenhouse gas emissions enough to avert a dangerous rise in global temperatures may be far more difficult than previous research suggested, say scientists who have just published studies indicating that it would require the world to cease carbon emissions altogether within a matter of decades. Their findings, published in separate journals over the past few weeks, suggest that both industrialized and developing nations must wean themselves off fossil fuels by as early as mid-century in order to prevent warming that could change precipitation patterns and dry up sources of water worldwide. Cont:http://tinyurl.com/2wlu2x Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Guest Posted March 10, 2008 Report Share Posted March 10, 2008 Carbon Output Must Near Zero To Avert Danger, New Studies Say By Juliet Eilperin Washington Post Staff Writer Monday, March 10, 2008; Page A01 The task of cutting greenhouse gas emissions enough to avert a dangerous rise in global temperatures may be far more difficult than previous research suggested, say scientists who have just published studies indicating that it would require the world to cease carbon emissions altogether within a matter of decades. Their findings, published in separate journals over the past few weeks, suggest that both industrialized and developing nations must wean themselves off fossil fuels by as early as mid-century in order to prevent warming that could change precipitation patterns and dry up sources of water worldwide. Cont:http://tinyurl.com/2wlu2x Holly you should know better who's study?????? What is their thesis for the drop in temperature with their emissions drop??? Who is paying for their study and funding their research hence paying their salary?????? I think that is one aspect of this whole issue that is very minimally talked about all this research that proves the global warming being man made is being not just funding for research it is paying a living wage for the researchers and as you know we work for someone we tend to stay on the bosses good side. Ya see they are not doing it out of the goodness of their heart no matter what the great warming mongers want you to believe they are doing it at a profit!!!!!!!!!!! It's called making a living. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Guest Posted March 10, 2008 Report Share Posted March 10, 2008 Carbon Output Must Near Zero To Avert Danger, New Studies Say By Juliet Eilperin Washington Post Staff Writer Monday, March 10, 2008; Page A01 The task of cutting greenhouse gas emissions enough to avert a dangerous rise in global temperatures may be far more difficult than previous research suggested, say scientists who have just published studies indicating that it would require the world to cease carbon emissions altogether within a matter of decades. Their findings, published in separate journals over the past few weeks, suggest that both industrialized and developing nations must wean themselves off fossil fuels by as early as mid-century in order to prevent warming that could change precipitation patterns and dry up sources of water worldwide. Cont:http://tinyurl.com/2wlu2x And by the way I think we were warned 10 years ago we had to do it now or there would be no way out. Then 5 years ago it was now or no way out. Now they want to tell me the middle of the century or there will be no way out. In a few years when they begin to see it is truly swinging back the other direction in temperature readings we will then hear about how it is our fault for that as well. Fear mongers PERIOD!!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HollyGolightly Posted March 10, 2008 Report Share Posted March 10, 2008 I didn't offer an opinion, did I? I just posted the article for discussion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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