Dumb Bungler in Chief speaks again

[Guest alan greenspan]

Maybe because people that know a hell of a lot more about the economy than you liberal BDS sufferers Do say so.

This is from a lean left California institution. And ps. I should have known you liberals would rely on someone else showing you the information because you expect all people to do all things for you ya lazy bastards.

 

In its first quarterly report of 2008, released March 11, the UCLA Anderson Forecast remains confident that the national economy was not in a recession through January 2008 and continues to forecast weak growth but no official recession in 2008.

As in their recent forecasts, UCLA Anderson Forecast economists shed a negative light on the real estate sector, with problems there continuing to be a drag on the economy as a whole, particularly as the home mortgage crisis becomes a credit crisis.

 

In California, the economic outlook continues to mirror that of the nation, despite questions by some regarding the possibility of a state recession in the absence of a national recession. The Anderson Forecast concludes that California is too closely tied to the nation for such an occurrence, and the outlook appears much the same — slow growth as the fallout from the real estate sector slowly works its way out of the economy.

 

The national forecast

 

In his national report, UCLA Anderson Forecast director Edward Leamer holds to his belief that the U.S. economy is not in a recession and that there is no recession to be feared in the immediate future, while admitting that there is a tenuous aspect to forecast.

 

"Our no-recession forecast remains nervously intact. We see a lot of problems in the first half of 2008, as housing remains a drag on GDP growth and weakness in personal consumption contributes as well," he writes. "We expect one quarter of negative GDP growth. The Fed continues to dish out good news for Wall Street with ever lower interest rates. The labor market is sluggish and unemployment elevates to 5.5 percent by the end of 2008. But the housing drag on GDP dissipates in the second half of the year and a normal economy returns in 2009."

 

According to Leamer, the recession risk is rooted in the insolvency problems that lending institutions currently face.

 

"But until I see evidence of a decline in spending by consumers and businesses because of credit problems," he writes, "I am going to believe that this is just another symptom of 'recession depression.' Main Street is doing well, even as Wall Street suffers."

 

In an accompanying piece, UCLA Anderson Forecast senior economist David Shulman says that the U.S. economy has "become enveloped in an ever widening and deepening credit recession, as distinguished from an economic recession, that is working to constrict borrowing to all but the most credit worthy borrowers."

 

 

In "The Credit Recession," Shulman notes that lenders, once fearful of not making loans, are now fearful of making them, as credit losses multiply. Credit losses in the system are now in excess of $150 billion, on the way to $400 billion. The credit recession has wide-ranging implications in many areas, from high-yield bonds to home mortgages. The turmoil in the debt markets has been accompanied by a drop in stock prices.

 

Ultimately, Shulman describes the current economy as "a perfect storm consisting of the worst credit crunch in decades, falling house prices and $100 oil. If history and global experience is any guide, the hangover from the mid-decade credit boom could last for quite some time."

 

 

 

great speech. i just asked how the current situation, whatever you call it, is related to the year 2000? if you say somehow one caused the other, i will say you are insane. (and your UCLA buddy) ps UCLA IS IN BERKELY. SO I GUESS YOU RELY ON LIBERALS FOR YOUR INFO.

 

 

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